Posts Tagged ‘tariffs’

Notes From Underground: All Tweets, No Substance

December 3, 2019

On Monday President Trump sent out an early morning TWEET that sought to admonish the FED for keeping interest rates too high, coupled with an accusation that “two South American have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies, which has not been good for our farmers.” ALL THE PRESIDENT’S MEN IN THE CAPACITY OF ECONOMIC AND TRADE ADVISERS OUGHT TO BE FIRED FOR MALFEASANCE.

This tweet was so off base that it should have forced the media into hyper critical mode to deconstruct its flaws. Brazil and Argentina have not been intervening to depreciate their currencies.

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Notes From Underground: Was Trump Addressing Mnuchin or Powell?

November 19, 2019

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Steven Muchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Trump at the White House where the duo “advised” and “forecasted” the economy to the president as 2020 election posturing is in full swing. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has maintained that Trump used the tariff threat to cajole Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates, weaken the DOLLAR and end the balance sheet runoff that the administration believed has held back the U.S. economy. What was Powell buying insurance against?

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Notes From Underground: So Many Insights

November 5, 2019

On October 31, I had the pleasure of the recording a discussion with Anthony Crudele and the always insightful Jim Bianco. These spots with Futures Television provide context to many things discussed in NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. I have been fortunate to have been chosen to appear with many high level global macro analysts.

Then on Sunday, I spoke with FRA’s Richard Bonugli and Dr. Marc Faber, one of the most heralded analysts in the global macro world. We covered the important issues for fifty-five minutes. It is my pleasure to share both of these conversations with you all.

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Notes From Underground: Walking Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death

September 22, 2019

There is no question that the world’s central banks are all living under the shadow of doubt as investors and financial markets are questioning the efficacy of the zero lower bound. The sense of always doing more in an effort to attain a self-conjured 2% level of inflation has led to the continued downward slide in interest rates.

On this note, last week we saw the Powell Fed lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points — and its interest on excess reserves rate by 30 basis points — as congestion in the financial plumbing sent overnight rates soaring. (For those who are interested in the nuances, I am linking to one of many splendid pieces from Bloomberg reporters Liz McCormick and Alexandra Harris detailing out the repo market mess.)

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Notes From Underground: Time It Was, What a Time It Was

August 27, 2019

These Simon and Garfunkel lyrics could apply to the events of this past weekend, the bookends of Jackson Hole and the G-7 meeting. The meaning was best summed up i a Financial Times story that quoted St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said, “Something is going on ,and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central bankingĀ  and all our cherished notions about what we think we’re doing. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal.”

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Notes From Underground: When the Paradox Of Thrift Doesn’t Apply

August 25, 2019

John Maynard Keynes’ critical theory said in times of uncertainty economic actors tend to save more, which leads to a negative feedback loop that slows the economy as demand shrinks. This is why governments need to increase fiscal stimulus to boost demand. It’s too bad that President Trump doesn’t exercise the paradox of thrift when it comes to WORDS. Let there be no mistake: We at NOTESĀ have been expecting a response from Trump like this.

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Notes From Underground: Unemployment Data? Frankly, I Don’t Give a Damn

August 1, 2019

Usually, when the first Friday of the month comes around my concern turns to nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings. But after the Powell press conference on Wednesday and Trump’s tariff tweets Thursday, my analysis is Gone With the Wind. As I discussed in the last few blog posts, Trump’s tweets on tariffs have cornered the Powell Fed as concerns arise over just how much global growth is going to be negatively impacted.

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Notes From Underground: Does Fear of Increased Tariffs Trump U.S. Data?

July 28, 2019

This is not a rhetorical question but a very direct concern about the leverage that President Trump has in dealings with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

After listening to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s press conference Thursday and then learning about the White House meeting about the possibility of currency intervention, I am wondering whether the president is using TARIFFS as leverage to satiate his desire for lower U.S. interest rates.

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Notes From Underground: When a Slower Fool, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life

June 30, 2019

First things first: There were no surprises out of the G-20, at least for those who read Notes From Underground and listened to the discussion that took place in the Whitewave Trading room. The most significant outcome was that President Trump held off from installing additional tariffs while President Xi confirmed that China would be buying more U.S. production, especially in the agricultural sector. In Thursday’s podcast with the Whitewave participants I advised that with the current weather problems in the U.S. heartland the Chinese would have to be vigilant about the cost of global grain prices rising as supply was hampered by poor planting conditions.

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Notes From Underground: G-19? Wherefore Art Thou AMLO?

June 27, 2019

We at Notes From Underground are keeping it short tonight, but including a link to a podcast I recorded with the White Wave Trading. I sit down with the group one or twice a week in order to analyze potential trading opportunities. Thursday’s discussion revolved around potential outcomes from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan.

The major theme is President Trump and Premier Xi Jinping coming to a decision on the Chinese agricultural tariffs on American exports. Also, another issue to be raised next week: Why Mexican President Obrador decided to pass on the G-20 meeting given that there’s so much positive potential for Mexico at this meeting. Enjoy!

Click here to watch and/or listen to the podcast