Posts Tagged ‘William Dudley’

Notes From Underground: The ECB, FOMC Minutes and Dudley’s Speech

August 17, 2017

On Wednesday, I joined Rick Santelli for a chat, which was centered on the ECB and other central banks’ impact on global equity and debt markets. Just before the appearance, there appeared a Reuters story that said President Draghi would not speak about the ECB’s potential Quantitative Tightening, which my readers know supported what I have been steadfast in my conjecturing about possible ECB actions. IN A NOD TO A READER (hello, AGH), while it appears that all central banks pursue a common policy, THERE’S NO MONETARY EQUIVALENCE. Yes, they all purport to raise inflation the political variables each push for different outcomes.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss the central banks.)

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Notes From Underground: Pour a Yamizaki, Enjoy 30 Minutes of Harris and Crudele

June 19, 2017

This morning I had the pleasure of sitting with a professional trader and discussing several themes that have coursed through NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND for the past several months, if not years. In staying with the Crudele hit I want to spend some time on offering some views on the significant flattening of the 5/30 curve during the last few weeks. More importantly, the 5/30 curve broke out to new multi-year lows, blowing through the previous low of 100.98. Today we closed at 99.5. The 2/10 curve was very stable and closed at 82.5 basis points holding above last weeks lows. Why is the more SPECULATIVE-oriented curve flattening more than the conventional investment directed curve?

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Notes From Underground: Looking for Headwinds In All the Wrong Places

August 18, 2016

It’s tough to enjoy the final days of summer when the FED can’t just relax their wind pipes. The continued contradictions emanating from those who sit in the same meetings is jeopardizing the Fed’s credibility … AGAIN. Last Monday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams published an economic letter in which he posed the concept of either raising the inflation targets, or the Fed ought to target a NOMINAL GDP level. This was perceived to be an extremely DOVISH view as it would keep the FED on HOLD far longer than the market currently predicts. The problem was that Williams had voiced a HAWKISH view just two weeks earlier. The quick about-face makes me wonder if the Fed’s logo should be the Roman god Janus.

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Notes From Underground: *Uncle Charlie Makes the Fed Like Michael Jordan … Can’t Hit the Curve

May 18, 2016

*NOTE: Uncle Charlie is baseball slang for curve ball

Today, the markets validated the recent moves in the YIELD CURVES as the April FOMC minutes reflected a desire by MOST participants to raise in interest rates at the JUNE meeting (kudos to Mr. Art Cashin for presciently discussing the importance of “MOST” prior to the FOMC release, or if you prefer LEAKS). It appears that the “data dependent” FED is certainly prepared to raise the FED FUNDS rate (in addition to the lower-bound reverse repo rate, and upper-bound interest on excess reserves rate) as long as the data is robust enough to signal full employment and is having the desired effect on wage and overall price inflation. The minutes certainly reflect the hawkishness of Rosengren, Mester and Lacker but it begs the question: DOES MONEY TALK AND BULLSHIT WALK? For as hawkish as the April minutes have been defined by the previous five days of price action, HOW COULD THE VOTE HAVE BEEN 9-1 in favor of keeping rates unchanged?

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Notes From Underground: When I Have Something to Say Sir, I’M GOING TO SAY IT NOW (Phil Ochs)

February 3, 2016

The markets are in turmoil and it gets the mind to thinking: What could possibly have caused today’s reversal in the stock market and the long end of the BOND MARKET? The market seemed like it was on the edge of a complete risk capitulation. The dollar was dropping, bonds all over the world were in rally mode and the precious metals were finally finding some technical strength as the GOLD (in pure dollar terms) had finally rallied through its 200-day moving average. Even the SILVER was able to synchronize with the GOLD and break out of three months of resistance. (The silver 200-day is at 15.13, still a bit above its closing price.) The global stock markets were cascading lower as the Nikkei and German DAX took out their lows made the night of the BOJ’s surprise move to a three-tiered negative interest rate policy.

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Notes From Underground: The Fed and John Lennon … HOW?

April 6, 2015

In the song “HOW” from John Lennon’s Imagine, he asks:

How Can We Go Forward When We Don’t Know Which Way we ‘re facing?
How can we go forward when we don’t know which way to turn?
How can we go forward into something we’re not sure of?
Oh no, oh no.

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Notes From Underground: A Suggestion for Mario Draghi

December 8, 2014

Three years ago I wrote a blog suggesting that Bundesbank Axel Weber should become ECB President so that the Germans felt they had control of Europe’s monetary policy. My argument was simple: If the Germans controlled the ECB then Berlin MAY BE more willing to support a QE program. As Bernard Connolly argued 20 years ago, the French hoped to gain control of European monetary, thus remove the powerful influence of the Bundesbank. The French have worried that an ECB under the influence of German monetarist restrictions would favor tight money and with it a strong EURO. France and Italy have relied on the ability to depreciate their currencies during times of stress but a Bundesbank-infused ECB would be more reticent to follow the path of least resistance and the possibility of inflation.

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Notes From Underground: Listen, Do You Want To Know A Secret (Said Yellen to Hilsenrath)???

May 21, 2014

Listen,do you want to know a secret

Do You promise not to tell,whoa,oh

Closer,let me whisper in your ear

Say the words you long to hear  (The Beatles)
Yesterday’s blog post addressed Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s interview with Jon Hilsenrath and New York Fed President William Dudley’s effort to communicate how the FED plans to deal with a bloated balance sheet in a “rising interest rate” environment. Today’s FOMC minutes from the April 29-30 meeting addressed just that. The Fed’s uncertainty in its methods has resulted in the need for Janet Yellen to get out front in explaining to the public, and, especially the markets, about the difficult task ahead in shrinking its balance sheet. The closed meeting of the Fed Governor’s ahead of the scheduled conclave was to discuss among a small group of Fed officials the tools that the System Open Market Account (SOMA) had been contemplating and testing.

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Notes From Underground: If Everybody Is Talking Who Is Listening

May 20, 2014

Presented with comment:

 

The First Economist

Yesterday, the airwaves were filled with global financial speakers singing from the hymnal of disinflation. His eminence, MR. 250 GRAND, was wowing the private speakers circuit with his opinion on stock market valuations and economic growth. Mr. Bernanke, please do not follow in the footsteps of Sir Alan Greenspan, who in his post-chairman life proved that he had very little understanding of the economy he was trying control. Only in the world of access journalism do the anointed powers pretend to be all-knowing oracles. As Bernanke hits the lecture circuit and speaks freely without the Fed backdrop it puts the current Fed Chair Janet Yellen into a very difficult position.T he media is in search of a story and a hero to worship, which propagates the idea of Fed decisions being based on rocket science with Fed policy a certainty. Again, theory and practice (praxis) do not produce hard facts in the world economics. In further support of the Fed’s “uncertainty principle,” yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran a Jon Hilsenrath interview with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. The interview is based on the operational techniques the Fed plans to utilize to “Raise Short-Term Interest Rates.”

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Notes From Underground: It Ain’t Rocket Science, Which Is Too Bad for the Dismal Science

January 5, 2014

There is an American expression: It Ain’t Rocket Science,which is meant to be a pejorative phrase to denote that if you fail to comprehend a somewhat easy concept you must have diminished cerebral capacity. I do not mean to imply this but rather use it to address some FED SPEAK over the weekend in which the American Economic Association provided lively discussion about the “SUCCESS” of the Fed’s policies for the last five years. There was point and counterpoint from highly acclaimed economists and thus ECONOMICS PROVED AGAIN THAT IT IS NOT A HARD SCIENCE. When Aerospace engineers build a spacecraft and design its mission they are sure of the spacecrafts return barring some unpredictable mechanical failure. AEROSPACE ENGINEERING IS PROVEN TO BE AN EXACT SCIENCE.

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