Posts Tagged ‘Mario Draghi’

Notes From Underground: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Donald?

January 25, 2018

It seems that the White House emptied and traveled to Davos in an effort to gain control at ground zero for access journalism. The fawning media has been the epicenter for President Trump’s assault of the airwaves. The anti-globalist, drainer-of-the-swamp has become the story emanating from the Alps in an effort to destroy the memory of Chinese leader XI at last year’s conclave. President Donald was the perfect foil for the globalist masquerade party just after his inauguration but in 12 months he has hijacked the entire soiree. On Wednesday it was Trump’s minions, Mnuchin and Ross, threatening the world’s money lords with the commencement of a global trade/currency war as the U.S. Commerce Secretary was sending soldiers to the ramparts with threats of throwing dead green presidents to their doom.

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Notes From Underground: Please, Please Pepper Spray Davos

January 24, 2018

The U.S. dollar fiduciaries wreaked havoc on markets as Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross hit dollar bulls with a one-two punch that sent the dollar index to three-year lows. I sure hope that Mrs. Mnuchin mirrored the behavior of previous Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Phillip Hildebrand, who was forced to resign in January 2012 when it was discovered his wife made a currency trade three weeks prior to an SNB policy announcement. I am sure that no White House Davos participants acted in any kleptocratic fashion (sarcasm intended). The price of a $650,000 ticket to Davos has to be of some value. Now, moving beyond sarcasm, Secretary Mnuchin broke with tradition to openly suggesting that a weaker DOLLAR is good for American trade and thus economic performance.

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Notes From Underground: Europe Takes Center Stage (Again)

January 15, 2018

It is always a pleasure to talk with the Richard Bonugli at the Financial Repression Authority. Like Anthony Cruedele of Futures Radio, Richard is a very astute financial mind, which allows for deep discussions in a longer format. We cover several issues discussed in Notes From Underground so I’m sorry if it seems redundant, but I will say that we take a deeper dive on the issues. The segment taped on Wednesday, January 10 so from a trading perspective the information may be stale. But from an investors’ perspective it will still be relevant as the markets begin to unravel the mysteries of a new year. We dive deeper into Europe as I am certain the continent will provide much of the tinder for market volatility in 2018. This weekend proved the case as several stories from Europe propelled the DOLLAR lower as U.S. markets were on holiday for Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday.

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Notes From Underground: The Same Old Song, With a different Beat (Since 2017 Be Gone)

January 4, 2018
After a sharp selloff late on December 29 the market has regained its mojo and rallied 2%. While the first two days of trading for the European markets were not confirming the S&P rally, the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 rallied with the EURO STOXX 50 closing back above its 200-day moving average on Thursday. The consensus from Wall Street analysts is for emerging markets and Europe to be better alternatives to U.S. investment prospects. Many quality strategists believe the U.S. equity markets are stretched in its valuation while Europe’s recovery is gaining momentum and emerging economies should be the major beneficiary of a synchronized global expansion.

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Notes From Underground: Beginning Of the End?

December 28, 2017

Happy and healthy New Year to all of my readers! Thank you for another GREAT year of contributions to make this BLOG a voice of reason in an effort to undermine the accepted NARRATIVE of conventional media investment pabulum. Today, one of the more astute anchors sustained the nonsense that the ECB and Mario Draghi have a SINGLE MANDATE (inflation), which renders the ECB policy easier to decipher as the FED has its self-defined DUAL MANDATE. This narrative as opined by the mainstream analysts is JUST DEAD WRONG. When Mario Draghi seized control of European fiscal and monetary policy in 2012, he said, “WE will do whatever it takes to preserve the EURO ….” and there would be no TABOOS. The ECB’s MANDATE is UNLIMITED and OPEN-ENDED whiles Draghi works to sustain QE and NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. Economic data has no weight in thwarting the WILL of the ECB.This is going to be a major story in global finance 2018 as the Italians head to the polls.

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Notes From Underground: Did I Miss Anything?

December 17, 2017

There were myriad central bank meetings last week as the FED, ECB, BOE, SNB, Bank of Mexico and others rendezvoused. With the exception of the Fed, all maintained their current policies. (The U.S. FED raised rates, which was 99% baked in.) The ECB was as dovish (as expected) and President Draghi has a few new issues to confront as Italian elections are scheduled for March 4, 2018. The Italian situation is already impacting sovereign bonds as the Italian 10-year yield rose against the German and French equivalents. BUT I FULLY EXPECT FOR THE ECB TO BREAK THE CAPITAL KEY RULES BY PURCHASING MORE ITALIAN DEBT THAN ALLOWED. POLITICS WILL BE DRAGHI’S MAIN CONCERN.

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Notes From Underground: Klaatu Barada Nikto (Stop The Printing Presses!)

November 19, 2017

In this famous science fiction phrase from the movie “The Day the Earth Stood Still,” I extract my own meaning: Stop the printing before the world’s financial system is destroyed. Sci-fi writer Edmund North never deciphered the English translation of this “alien” phrase but I believe my interpretation applies to these tumultuous times in central banking. The ROBOT GORT is prevented from destroying the world when the words are spoken to him. Thus I say to Mario Draghi: “Mario Barada Nikto.” The continued use of large-scale asset purchases to enhance global liquidity in a period of increased economic growth is preventing the markets from stabilizing. The proof is in the continued mispricing of corporate debt. Last week, the BBB-rated French firm Veolia sold 500 million euros of three-year notes for -0.026%. Yes, a mediocre credit was able to borrow at less than zero. This is the insanity of the financial world to which the central banks continue to provide liquidity.

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Notes From Underground: William Dudley Starts Goodbye With a “Dud” Speech

November 6, 2017

As reported over the weekend, New York Fed President William Dudley is turning in his keys to the printing press and leaving the Fed in mid-2018 to spend more time with his family (Goldman Sachs). In a speech delivered to the Economic Club of New York, the reigning king of the New York Fed praised the central bank for its effort to prevent a collapse of the global financial system. He laid blame for the crisis on all the familiar miscreants but mostly stressed that “the safeguards put in place in response to the crisis are fully appreciated and respected.” President Dudley maintains that the global financial crisis was a result of lacking the tools to regulate the entire financial system and sums up his analysis: “We had woefully inadequate regulatory regime in place,and while it is much better now, there is still work to do.”

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Notes From Underground: It’s Halloween and Nothing Scares the Markets

October 31, 2017

It has been a few days since the ECB announced its intentions. There was no surprise as President Draghi met market expectations by beginning a NON-TAPER, cutting QE by 30 billion euros beginning in January 2018. So as we considered the outcome of PACE and DURATION, the ECB cut the pace in half and extended the program by nine months to September 2018. The most significant piece of the Draghi press conference was his persistence on making the composition of future purchases. It seems that the ECB will utilize the European corporate bond market to meet its requirement and stay true to its CAPITAL KEY. By buying more corporate debt the ECB will find enough German assets to buy. The major problem for the European markets is that UNLIKE the U.S. financial system, European banks are a much more important actor as they provide far more corporate loans on a percentage basis of GDP than U.S. banks. The U.S. financial system relied to a far greater extent on issuing bonds. We have previously discussed the absurd chart showing European high yield debt to have a lower interest rate than 10-year U.S. Treasuries.

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Notes From Underground: Him Or Me, What’s It Gonna Be?

October 24, 2017

President Trump is the ultimate drama queen. The president is drawing out his FED selection as he titillates the markets with the drips and drabs as to who is the most probable choice. Here is my best guess: Because this president reminds the nation how great he is doing using the stock markets as the barometer it would follow that his choice would be the best one for keeping equity prices elevated. Kevin Warsh and John Taylor would be a problem as the equity markets would become cautious for fear of short-term interest rates rising at a quicker pace. It seems that Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen would be the ones to sustain the current stock rally as they are known entities to the Wall street contingent. Of course the ultimate booster of all asset classes would be Neel Kashkari, the latest dissenter to the previous rate increases in 2017.

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