Posts Tagged ‘Mexico’
June 27, 2019
We at Notes From Underground are keeping it short tonight, but including a link to a podcast I recorded with the White Wave Trading. I sit down with the group one or twice a week in order to analyze potential trading opportunities. Thursday’s discussion revolved around potential outcomes from this weekend’s G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan.
The major theme is President Trump and Premier Xi Jinping coming to a decision on the Chinese agricultural tariffs on American exports. Also, another issue to be raised next week: Why Mexican President Obrador decided to pass on the G-20 meeting given that there’s so much positive potential for Mexico at this meeting. Enjoy!
Click here to watch and/or listen to the podcast
Tags:AMLO, China, G-20, Mexico, tariffs, trade
Posted in G-20, Mexico, trade, United States | 10 Comments »
June 2, 2019
And what might those be, you ask? Ill-conceived. Ill-timed. Ill-advised.
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Tags:Canada, China, Europe, Mexico, NAFTA, Robert Lighthizer, trade, U.S., USMCA
Posted in Canada, Mexico, trade, United States | 8 Comments »
April 25, 2018
In building on the discussions in Tuesday’s POST it is important to note that the debt discussion that has taken place in Notes From Underground is gaining traction as an important piece of the financial narrative. The failure of the SPOOS, NASDAQ, and DOW to gain traction with the robust earning releases is forcing the perplexed to confront the impact and collateral damage from Ben Bernanke’s Portfolio Balance Channel, also known as QE or large-scale asset purchases.
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Tags:AMLO, BOJ, Dow, ECB, Euro, Gold, gold/euro, Kuroda, Mario Draghi, Mexico, NASDAQ, Peso, SPS, U.S. 10-Year Note, U.S. Dollar, Yuan
Posted in BoJ, Currency, Debt Market, ECB | 8 Comments »
January 30, 2014
First, bravo to the Bernanke Fed for staying the course and learning from its September mistake: Don’t mislead the markets with a sudden change of direction. It appears that the Fed will provide investors with enough “forward guidance” if they wish to alter the market’s perceptions. FOMC members had plenty of time to dissuade traders if the recent slew of tepid data was going to steer Bernanke and Company away from another cut in QE purchases. The FED erred on the side of consistency rather than swerving to avoid the skidding emerging markets. Again, a FED pause would have further roiled a very nervous global financial market.
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Tags:Brazil, current account deficits, Fed, FOMC, Mexico, New Zealand, Peso, QE, rand, Real, ruble, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Turkish lira, Wheeler
Posted in Currency, Emerging Markets, Fed, RBNZ | 21 Comments »
August 13, 2013
The Nikkei index rallied strongly overnight as the Abe Administration floated the idea of possibly cutting Japanese corporate taxes if the consumption tax increases is instituted. The ABE Government is fearful of negatively impacting the economy so continue to be alert to any “tapering of taxation” to keep the present economic growth story on its path. Tonight I am posting Tobias Harris’s post on the view of the consumption tax from Japanese sources. It is a rebuttal to my piece of last week. (more…)
Tags:Abe, Japan, Mexico, Nieto, Peso
Posted in Japan, Mexico | 2 Comments »
August 11, 2013
There was no main theme during the last week as the global financial markets try to measure Chinese growth while attempting to weigh the impact of a FED tapering of its quantitative easing program (QE). There is a continual to and fro as the equity markets are holding up well in the face of rising long-term interest rates, but as I have maintained, the yield curves are steepening as investors understand that the FED may be tapering but it is not tightening. This is not 1994. With this in mind let us examine some other issues.
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Tags:Canada unemployment, Fed, gold/silver ratio, Mexico, PEMEX, platinum/gold, potash cartels, President Nieto, QE, Uralkali
Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »
July 16, 2013
The financial world waits for Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. (The written speech will be made available at 7:30 a.m. CST, 90 minutes prior to the start of testimony.) This is a new policy so as to preempt any leakage by the notorious inside trading group that resides within the bowels of a non-regulated legislature. (Of course, high frequency trading groups will have it two seconds earlier. What are campaign contributions for?) The prepared text will be plain vanilla and any possible market moving news will come during the Q&A. It would be a great surprise if Chairman Bernanke reveals any new wrinkles on FED policy for another bout of veering from the FOMC minutes would begin to undermine the FED‘s credibility.
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Tags:Ben Bernanke, democrats, EU auto sales, Fed, FOMC, Hilsenrath, Mexico, Nieto, Obama administration, PEMEX, QE, U.S. Dollar, Yen
Posted in Currency, Fed, Mexico, United States | 3 Comments »
March 11, 2013
Today was a very slow news day and thus little news to slow the steady rise of equities and the sell off in other asset classes. There was a story in the Financial Times about the Brazilian government cutting the tax on ethanol producers. The government is going to cut the tax on sugar-based ethanol producers by 80%–from 120 REALS per cubic meter to 25 REALS. It is an effort “… to support ethanol producers, many of whom are facing bankruptcy because of heavy debts and DIFFICULTIES COMPETING WITH SUBSIDISED PETROL PRICES IN BRAZIL.” There has been a global sugar surplus, which has kept pressure on sugar prices, but this move may help lift sugar prices and allow Brazilian growers to grab some of the agricultural profits that have supported the Brazilian economy. The U.S. economy is a corn-based ethanol producer and this has helped put upward pressure on global grain prices which has benefited Brazil’s farmers.
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Tags:BOJ, Brazil, Carlos Slim, Enrique Nieto, ethanol, Japan, Kuroda, Mexico, U.S. 2/10 Yield Curve
Posted in BoJ, Brazil, Debt Market, Ethanol, Japan, Mexico, Sugar | 5 Comments »
December 11, 2012
The FOMC will release the results of two days of policy deliberations at 11:30 a.m. CST Wednesday and the market is convinced that the Bernanke FED will vote to end Operation Twist but increase FED Treasury purchases. It may not be the full $45 billion but something above $25 billion, which would be in addition to the already promised purchases of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). It will be difficult to continue Operation Twist because the FED‘s System Open Market Account (SOMA) is nearly void of debt of less than three-year duration. Any new FED purchases will have to be with cash resulting in an increase in bank reserves. The result be not be a Maturity Extension Program but a new round of Quantitative Easing. It is doubtful that the FOMC statement will allude to fiscal policy but will just remain true to discussion of the dual mandate.
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Tags:Ben Bernanke, currency war, Dimla Rousseff, Enrique Nieto, Fed, FOMC, Hollande, Mexico, operation twist, PEMEX, QE
Posted in Currency, Fed, Mexico | 2 Comments »
October 15, 2012
It seems that yesterday’s piece on the IMF left more questions than answers. The point of the IMF moving to break the adverse (negative) feedback loop in the economies of Europe and the impact of austerity budgets results in greater deficits as the economy affected experiences negative economic growth rates, which creates greater deficits. As my readers are well aware, budget deficits can increase by slowing growth as well as increased expenditures. The IMF economic models have used a 0.5% impact on proscribed fiscal retrenchment. The IMF has used that 0.5% number for 30 years. As the IMF has studied the European nations and other countries during the recent Great Recession, it seems that the organization’s models are flawed and the impact is far greater, resulting in ever greater deficits amid less economic growth. The IMF believed that for ever 1% drop in government budgets the result would be a drop in GDP of that beloved 0.5%–the multiplier that the models use.
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Tags:EU, FOMC, GDP, Gold, Greece, IMF, Mexico, QE3, Spain Portugal
Posted in IMF, Mexico | 6 Comments »