The headline nonfarm payroll number was much weaker than expected and confused traders because it was so wide of the April 5 ADP release of 263,000, but the rest of the data was tepid though not weak enough to dissuade the FOMC from further efforts to raise rates. The important average hourly earnings was up 0.2%, in line with expectations, but the weekly hours worked slipped 0.1, which may have been in response to the early March storms. The unemployment rate dropped to a recovery low of 4.5% but that may be because of the amount of workers having left the labor force. The markets’ initial reaction to the headline NFP was the bonds rallied, the dollar weakened and the precious metals rose. By day’s end all the moves reversed from early rallies inspired by the U.S. missiles fired at Syria. The market had deemed the cruise missiles fired at the air force base in Syria as a market destabilizing event, spurring a purchase of what are deemed safe haven assets: GOLD, YEN, BONDS. But the end of day reversal nullified Syria as a one-off event. So the market is confused as to the genuine impact of the unemployment report and we will have to wait for more economic data to weigh all the “communication” coming from FED speakers. Chair Yellen will be speaking with a Q&A session on Monday afternoon so late market action should not be discounted.
Posts Tagged ‘Financial Repression Authority’
Yes, the talk of the weekend has been the 0.4% increase in the average hourly earnings embedded in the jobs data. The Fed had three members speak after the data release and all noted that the wage gains may mean that we are at full employment. Jeffrey Lacker was the most concerned about the FED being behind the proverbial curve. My analysis will be later in the week but first I wanted to share the FRA podcast as it includes the wisdom of Peter Boockvar of the Lindsey Group. Enjoy and I look forward to your comments as they will be answered and hopefully provide substance for an upcoming post.
I have been doing more media coverage of political economic discussions and I am proud and honored to be a part of Gordon T. Long’s laborious work for the Financial Repression Authority. Much of what is discussed on the podcast has been a constant theme in Notes From Underground and my ubiquitous discussions with Rick Santelli. I would like feedback from readers about setting up such a format in which an interactive video effort would allow the give and take of real-time Q&A. It is a fairly long (43 minutes) so turn down Joe Buck on Fox ‘s World Series coverage and listen to the discussion. Take notes and put forth questions as to further the discussion that makes NOTES worth writing. As a long-time Cubs fan I am enjoying the recent high-level play of the young stars but am saddened for all the Cub fans who have not been able to experience the joy of seeing the CUBS in the world series. Oh well, as the world turns on a dynamic model.