Posts Tagged ‘Europe’

Notes From Underground: The Tweets Controlling the Market Gyrations

July 1, 2018

Now that the first six months of the year have come and gone, the markets have a cacophony of events to look forward to as algos react to price, and fundamental macro analysts are trapped between WHAT OUGHT TO BE. The current concerns over tariffs, trade wars, strife between friends/allies, political uncertainty in Europe, Middle East conflagrations, the Russia/Saudi alliance on energy, Chinese growth concerns, RISING U.S. INTEREST RATES AND INCREASED QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING (along with elevated TREASURY FUNDING NEEDS), decrease in capital inflows into emerging market economies leading to potential dollar funding concerns and U.S. Congressional elections. Yet, the markets remain are not pricing in the relevance of such concerns. Wise traders and investors do not fight markets but profit from the opportunities presented. To do otherwise is mere commentary. So to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes: When the facts change so do I, what do you do madam?

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Notes From Underground: Headlines Drive the Algos and the Circle Remains Unbroken

June 12, 2018

I’m going to be off for a few days, even if this Fed meeting proves to be the most market-moving week in many years.

The news from North Korea proves to be a non-event (as suspected). On Wednesday, we get the FOMC statement, which OUGHT to meet market expectations with a 25 basis point increase and some sense of the interest on excess reserve (IOER) rate in reference to fed funds. There is much discussion about the FED reaching “normal” interest rates, meaning neither too weak nor too strong to reach its dual mandate.

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Notes From Underground: Trump Delivers on Using the Dollar as a Policy Tool

April 12, 2017

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the tweeter-in-chief was reported to have said, “The DOLLAR IS GETTING TOO STRONG.” As some pundits discussed, instead of Trump calling China a currency manipulator it seems he wants to use the dollar as a cudgel to pressure others into not embarking on policies to weaken their currencies. As I wrote on April 2:

“The Trump Administration’s efforts to curb the U.S. trade deficit may see the executive branch try to depreciate the U.S. dollar if Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross fail to persuade certain global actors to embark upon policies to adjust their current account and trade surpluses. The Fed’s recent tightening has not rallied the dollar–it actually closed lower on the quarter–so if the political status quo is sustained in Europe and no new political crisis emerges, the DOLLAR will become a barometer of Trump’s policies on trade.”

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Notes From Underground: A Financial Repression Authority (FRA) Podcast With Peter Boockvar

February 12, 2017

It is a great honor to feature another podcast with Peter Boockvar for The Financial Repression Authority. Peter is certainly one of the regular commentators that I watch with great interest whenever he is on Bloomberg, Fox Business or CNBC. I think we cover much of the global financial landscape. While it may run long, it is a lot easier than reading a 20,000-word blog post. Pour the scotch and give it a listen.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE PODCAST EPISODE!

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Notes From Underground: Let’s Look at Global Yield Curves

February 7, 2017

One of the most important indicators for financial markets is yield curves. They are predictive as they have historically shown coming economic turmoil, or, more importantly, the end of a business cycle. The severity of any recession depends on the amount of debt that has preceded the onset of an economic slowdown. I will remind readers that before the 2007-08 financial crisis, the U.S. 2/10 curve actually INVERTED to NEGATIVE SIX BASIS POINTS. Some financial pundits like to cynically advise consumers that the STOCK markets have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions, but that is not so with yield curves. The difficulty with the signalling mechanism of yield curves is predicting the time for even during the GREAT RECESSION equity markets continued to rally even as the curve flattened.

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Notes From Underground: The Rallying Cry Remains, “Pepper Spray Davos”

January 16, 2017

We at Notes From Underground have published more than 1,000 posts during the last seven years. I have voiced my displeasure about the annual gathering in Davos for the past five years (last year’s Davos post is below). My battle cry was (ans continues to be): PEPPER SPRAY DAVOS, a response to the heinous police overreaction to the pepper spraying of University of California–Davis students in November 2011. The police POURED pepper spray onto student protesters, a contemptible act of police brutality. I thought if the UC–Davis students were subjected to such a police response for blocking a sidewalk the crony capitalists of global monopolies are surely worthy of such a contemptuous action. The corporate chieftains and their political sycophants, who exchange “insider views” for large speaking fees (and of course a hope to secure a job after leaving political office), have badly damaged the world.

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Notes From Underground: Old Friends

November 20, 2016

Time it was

and what a time it was, it was

a time of innocence

a time of confidences

long ago it must be

i have a photograph

preserve your memories

they’re all that’s left you [Simon & Garfunkel]

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Notes From Underground REISSUE: January 11, 2016

September 29, 2016

Everything that I blogged about last night appeared on the financial markets’ radar screens today. The non-issue of Deutsche Bank suddenly became an issue as investors became worried about the collateral that they were holding at Deutsche Bank. It was not “locusts” that caused the market to become concerned about Deutsche’s solvency but rather depositors and prime brokerage accounts that feared for their capital. Compounding the DB story was the rise of the price to hedge against a Deutsche Bank default, as well as the infamous COCO bonds that many European banks issued in an effort to enhance their capital ratios in deference to the Basel rules. You could purchase some of the Deutsche COCOs today for an effective yield of 12.7% but if the COCO bondholders are bailed-in, the COCOs will cease paying interest and the DEBT will be automatically converted to equity, thus further diluting existing shareholders.

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Notes From Underground: You Are So Jejune (Love and Death, Woody Allen)

June 27, 2016

Let’s clear about the mess of Brexit. First, the media is awash with so many opinions from those who had no idea that a vote for Brexit was in the realm of possible outcomes. Yet there is no lack of insights into the end of Britain’s role in the EU. Never have so many people been spewing the hogwash of hysteria into the portfolios of public investors. So in a very typical French philosophical format, let’s DECONSTRUCT last week’s outcomes:

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Notes From Underground: Alfred E. Neuman or Arthur Fonzarelli? Pick Your Poison

June 9, 2016

Since I’m 62 years old, my references of social icons goes back to a more simple time. Alfred E. Neuman of Mad Magazine fame would ask, “What, Me Worry?” The other side of the equation would be Arthur Fonzarelli from the television show, “Happy Days.” who would stutter before ever admitting that he was WRONG. The world’s central banks are a reflection of these two icons. It seems that Yellen, Draghi and Kuroda all suffer from both views. They have nothing to worry about and they certainly cannot admit to being wrong. The central banks are under attack from investors and traders for pursuing quantitative easing and negative yields even though the efficacy of such programs is certainly in doubt.

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