Posts Tagged ‘SNB’

Notes From Underground: ‘Twas the Week Before Christmas

December 18, 2022

Last week, the leaders of the world’s central banks were attempting to regain their souls. FEDERAL RESERVE Chair Jerome Powell told tales of woe as workers were suffering as inflation rose. Crush the evil inflation out of the system is the battle cry¬† in an effort to recreate the melodrama of Andrew Mellon in 1931: liquidate, liquidate, liquidate in an effort to Calvinize the evil from the economy by crushing demand. Powell did note that housing had weakened SIGNIFICANTLY and financial conditions HAVE TIGHTENED CONSIDERABLY but will have to be patient because monetary policy acts with a lag.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Are Central Banks the Grand Illusion?

April 1, 2022

This week I had the extreme pleasure of recording a Financial Repression Authority podcast with Zoltan Poszar (moderated by Richard Bonugli, of course). We covered the entire global scene from yield curves, petro dollars and the underlying basis to all fiat money transactions. It is worth a listen to learn that the fabricated, algo-driven headlines are not the contextual basis of major shifting sands in the global financial system. There is far more nuance locked underlying the moves by policy makers around the world.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Closing In On Critical Levels

December 3, 2020

In the past six months, NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has always been more podcast than blog posts so it’s a very good time to review and put the markets into perspective are as we approach 2021. NOTES has been on the bearish side of the DOLLAR trade since Wolfgang Schaeuble — the purveyor of the German NEIN and infamous Schwarz NULL (black zero) — pivoted and promoted a large grant program to help the severely impacted European economies suffering from COVID and a massive debt burden. As Schaeuble suggested, giving more loans was similar to giving the debt plagued nations ROCKS, weighing them down ever more, while giving large GRANTS was similar to providing BREAD.

(more…)

Notes From Undergound: Marc Faber, Wow

October 13, 2020

It is a pleasure to have sat down with the paradigm of global macro, Dr. Marc Faber. We, alongside Richard Bonugli, talked commodities, currencies and bond markets. Enjoy the podcast and make it a double of your favorite libation. No, it’s not doom and gloom. It’s insights into the current global financial situation presented with potential investment opportunities.

But first, let’s review a few things:

(more…)

Notes From Underground: SNB, Paradigm or Pariah?

May 4, 2020

Question: Why does the Swiss National Bank become an important topic for discussion?

Answer: Since Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” and “no taboos” comments in 2012 about saving the euro. The SNB has been in a defensive position of trying to prevent a dramatic appreciation of the FRANC as the SWISS acts as a haven for Europeans. The geographic location provides for what economists refer to as home basis.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Into the Dark Recesses of My Mind

March 3, 2020

Three weeks ago we at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND suggested the Fed needed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in an effort to get ahead of the potential negative economic fallout from a DEMAND SHOCK caused by the Covid-19 virus. But the rate cut was to be presented with the caveat that this was an economic cut and financial considerations were not involved. If the demand shock from the VIRUS never materialized the cut would be RESCINDED. After announcing an emergency cut Tuesday Chairman Jerome Powell took a few questions from the media.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: “It’s Good News Week”

December 10, 2019

What an appropriate song for the band Hedgehoppers Anonymous. This week is loaded with potential market-moving outcomes. On Wednesday we have the final FOMC statement of the year followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. The CONSENSUS is for no change in the current fed funds target range of 1.5% to 1.75%. The real key will hopefully be Powell’s press conference as market participants are hoping for any sort of dialogue about the Fed’s role in the repo market.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Was Trump Addressing Mnuchin or Powell?

November 19, 2019

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Steven Muchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Trump at the White House where the duo “advised” and “forecasted” the economy to the president as 2020 election posturing is in full swing. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has maintained that Trump used the tariff threat to cajole Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates, weaken the DOLLAR and end the balance sheet runoff that the administration believed has held back the U.S. economy. What was Powell buying insurance against?

(more…)

Notes From Underground: “Where Did I Find This Guy Jerome?”

September 8, 2019

Of all the U.S. president’s tweets (and believe he has a lot), Friday’s tweet about Federal Reserve Chairman was one of the best. Unfortunately, there probably should’ve been a comma between “guy” and “Jerome” since one could ask the question about any member of Trump’s economic team. President Trump could be asking the Fed chairman about Secretary Steven Mnuchin, or Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and certainly of Larry Kudlow or Peter Navarro. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has been asking that for many months. In my opinion, the only Trump pick that inspires confidence is Robert Lighthizer.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Bringing Europe to the Fore, Yet Again

August 20, 2019

Whenever I have an appearance on CNBC with Rick Santelli, Europe proves itself as critical to U.S. monetary policy. The past five years have led to dialogue that questions the efficacy of ECB policy and the slight of hand moves by President Mario Draghi. As BUND yields drag all sovereign debt yields even lower, the central bank is struggling to find policies that will keep LOWER FOR LONGER going. It seems that the last play in the book is to provoke Jerome Powell to abandon any NORMALIZATION of interest rate policy regardless of the economic data reported by the U.S.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss Europe and monetary policy.)

(more…)