Posts Tagged ‘Jon Hilsenrath’

Notes From Underground: Listen, Do You Want To Know A Secret (Said Yellen to Hilsenrath)???

May 21, 2014

Listen,do you want to know a secret

Do You promise not to tell,whoa,oh

Closer,let me whisper in your ear

Say the words you long to hear  (The Beatles)
Yesterday’s blog post addressed Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s interview with Jon Hilsenrath and New York Fed President William Dudley’s effort to communicate how the FED plans to deal with a bloated balance sheet in a “rising interest rate” environment. Today’s FOMC minutes from the April 29-30 meeting addressed just that. The Fed’s uncertainty in its methods has resulted in the need for Janet Yellen to get out front in explaining to the public, and, especially the markets, about the difficult task ahead in shrinking its balance sheet. The closed meeting of the Fed Governor’s ahead of the scheduled conclave was to discuss among a small group of Fed officials the tools that the System Open Market Account (SOMA) had been contemplating and testing.

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Notes From Underground: Investing in the Time of Hilsenrath

October 30, 2013

In the biggest news story of the day, Jon Hilsenrath reported that New Zealand bank Governor Wheeler led his board to hold the line on interest rates. (NOTE: Hilsenrath didn’t report the New Zealand news as he was too busy trying to impact U.S. markets with a tweet here and a tweet there.) The RBNZ did note that the global economic recovery remains “patchy.” The KIWI bank seems content to allow rates to remain on hold for two major reasons: 1. The macroprudential regulations instituted to slow house price inflation need more time to work–New Zealand instituted regulations on loan-to-value mortgages; and 2. “The exchange rate remains high and is a headwind to the traded goods sector. Sustained strength in the exchange rate that leads to lower inflationary pressure would provide the bank with greater flexibility as to the timing and magnitude of future increases in the OCR. Fiscal consolidation is also expected to continue weighing on demand over the next few years.”

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Notes From Underground: Bernanke, Deliver Us From This Madness (Annie Hall or Deliverance)

June 17, 2013

I am very confused by the constant bombardment of the news headlines that tend to contradict each other. One begins to wonder if the “ARMS” race media outlets are running is to craft headlines that have the greatest market impact. In a world of keyword algo readers, the market impact can be immense in a mere TWO SECONDS.
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Notes From Underground: Searching for Clarity in the Age of Monetary Policy On Steroids

May 12, 2013

The much-awaited piece from Jon Hilsenrath about FED “tapering” appeared in the weekend WSJ, and, as promised by the abundant tweets, it delivered very little in providing any new insights into Fed halting of security purchases. The headline, “Fed Maps Exit From Stimulus,” wasn’t a map of any kind and merely seemed to provide the philosopher’s answer to question of what to do when confronted with the fork in the road … TAKE IT. The FED is caught on the horns of a dilemma for it wants to provide some clarity as to how it will end the large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) without sending the market into a downside tailspin. The massive increase in the FED‘s balance sheet has provided the rocket fuel to boost the demand for all types of risky assets but how do they know the economy has enough strength to sustain the rally on its own. It seems that the most important voice now will be Fed Governor Jeremy Stein–more important than Jon Hilsenrath–for he seemed to unnerve Chairman Bernanke with his April 19 speech in which he warned about the distorting impact the Fed was having on risk assets. It seems the Chairman has awoken to the idea that the FED has blown an asset bubble, especially now that the Japanese have added to global liquidity.

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Notes From Underground: Hilsenrath Has Left the Reservation

December 31, 2012

In a WSJ piece posted today by the FED‘s media darling Jon Hilsenrath–the leak source of choice–wrote an article criticizing the FED and its reliance on flawed models. Readers of Notes From Underground are well aware that the whole purpose of this blog is to challenge the absoluteness of quantitative models when it comes to global macro trading. The release of Hilsenrath piece just sheds light on a very common theme of mine. The bigger story will be is that the FED‘s new communication policy has placed Janet Yellen as the point person for the most important FED information and the reliance on any FED anointed journalist seems to have come to an end. If the market comes to challenge the FED‘s models, the volatility in 2013 will increase dramatically. Happy New Year and we have much to digest going forward. Also, in conjunction with the Hilsenrath article, here’s a link to the December 13 note.