Posts Tagged ‘Jerome Powell’

Notes From Underground: This Is A Week Filled With …

January 29, 2018

This week for global macro traders is packed with data and policy statements that can ignite the volatility fuse. On Tuesday night, President Trump, the conquering hero of Davos, will deliver the State of the Union address. Chair Janet Yellen will oversee her final FOMC meeting this week. There are also several data releases Thursday and Friday, culminating with the unemployment report.

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Notes From Underground: Feeding the Ducks (Part Two)

January 10, 2018

Tonight, I’d like to expound on the recent musings from Chris Whalen, titled, “Bank Earnings &Volatility.” Whalen stresses that the FED will not be selling assets but merely ending “its reinvestment of cash when securities are REDEEMED,” (emphasis mine). In what I consider a key point raised, Whalen said, “Yet as we and a growing number of investors seems to appreciate, the FED cannot force up long-term rates so long as it is sitting on $4 trillion worth of securities THAT IT DOES NOT HEDGE. More given that the Treasury intends to concentrate future debt issuance on short-term maturities, downward pressure on long-term bonds yields is likely to intensify.” Whalen also said, “What the FOMC has done to the markets via QE is essentially reduce potential volatility by holding securities and not hedging these securities.” The key point is enhanced by the fact that both the ECB and BOJ do not hedge their security exposure either so volatility has been diminished by the reduced hedging.

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Notes From Underground: Feeding the Ducks When They Quack

January 9, 2018

Since the unemployment data, I have tried to write an appropriate blog but “all my words came back to me in shades of mediocrity” so I refrained from adding to the stream of vapid commentary that fills the Internet. But let’s proceed as the markets provided movement based on some sense of heightened inflation expectations. There is certainly money flowing into commodity based investments as OIL, COPPER, GOLD, and a litany of other natural resources have become a repository for money concerned with investments other than crypto currencies. The U.S. employment data was well within the range of expectations. The important average hourly earnings and the average work week were close to the consensus forecasts. The Canadian data beat estimates for the second consecutive month. The consensus was for an unemployment rate of 6% and addition of 2,000 jobs. The actual data was 5.7% unemployed and almost 80,000 new jobs, with two-thirds being part-time.

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Notes From Underground: Things On Our Radar Screen in 2018

January 2, 2018

The last trading day of the year, me and Rick took a BRIEF look into concerns about 2018. Three minutes is not enough time but it does afford the opportunity to put some ideas out that are not people’s screens. As the month progresses we will discuss several items in greater detail. I want to tell readers to review the very vibrant discussion that is taking place on the last blog post. Thank you to all the participants for providing insights into the global macro world. The discussion is first class, representing dialectic efforts, not validation. (A tip of the cap to  Dave, Stefan Jovanovich, Chicken, Big Man  and Professor Waspi for enhancing the quality of analysis.) Dave Richards and Asherz have been regular contributors and have certainly been on top of the precious metals markets and the weakness of the dollar. Tonight I will briefly discuss some issues outside the generally accepted narrative.

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Notes From Underground: An Arthur Fonzarelli Moment for Yra

November 29, 2017

Six weeks ago I did a podcast with Anthony  Crudele and Rick Santelli about markets. I brazenly said the S&Ps would experience a 10% break before a further 3% rally. The S&Ps were at 2550 and as of this morning the 3% has been actualized long before the 10%. My respects to Rick Santelli, who was right on target with his call to purchase all equity markets for the next period of time. In true FONZI ways, I was wrong. But I have been liquidating long-held stocks into this rally and will continue to do so as I view this 23% rally since the Trump election as a great gift. If I had predicted on November 9 that the S&Ps would be 23% higher a year later, you would have had me committed.

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Notes From Underground: An Answer to a Rohr and Chicken

November 7, 2017

As I noted on Sunday night we FINALLY closed below the 73 basis point level that has held for almost two years after several attempts to flatten through that support. The FED is in a difficult situation. Similar to the central bank openly stating that it doesn’t understand what is going on with the Phillips curve and lack of wage inflation, it doesn’t want to admit that the FLATTENING curve is due to the ECB’s ongoing asset purchases that is compressing yields. Some MOOKS maintain that it is a global savings glut but when you have printing how can you discern what constitutes savings and not just central bank intervention?

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Notes From Underground: An Assessment of Market-Moving Events (Or, Which Narrative is Most Critical?)

November 5, 2017

Three central bank meetings, the selection of a new Fed chair, the release of a major new tax policy and the unemployment report provided the markets with great potential for increased volatility. Instead the markets yawned and carried equities to new all-time highs.The central bank decisions went as expected; the unemployment was a bit weaker than projected but the weather problems from the hurricanes have probably not been fully tallied.

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Notes From Underground: Be Very Afraid Of Jerome Powell and His Printing Press

October 3, 2017

Over the past 15 months, I have made light of Fed Governor Jerome (Jay) Powell because of his answer to a question I had asked him at a symposium presented by the Chicago Global Initiative. I asked Governor Powell, “Who guarantees the balance sheet of the ECB?” Without hesitating, Powell said, “THEY HAVE A PRINTING PRESS.” If this is his answer to issues of debt overhang I will be closely watching the precious metals if Powell actually became Fed Chairman. Janet Yellen has proven far more competent than Jerome Powell would be under any top of stressful central bank situation.

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Notes From Underground: Taking Pulse of a Dead Market

August 8, 2016

Wow! Was it quiet in today’s market? The simple answer is yes but Notes From Underground never takes things at face value. The global markets digested Friday’s “robust” employment report and seemed content with the market results: stronger dollar, stronger equities, higher yields and selling of precious metals. The euro and gold were steady today, but the yen and Swiss were weak as the safe haven’s were shunned as the risk-on trade is back en vogue. I have no problem with the market’s assessment of the jobs data but there were other stories that piqued my interest.

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Notes From Underground: OBAMA GIVES THE FINGER TO MAIN STREET AND OWS

December 27, 2011

The news during the last five days has been sparse as the regular year-end news items filter through the talking heads giving prediction after prediction about what will occur next year. Everything from the break-up of the EU to the closing of the Straits of Hormuz winds its way through the markets. The only significant story is the parking of LARGE AMOUNTS OF EUROS AT THE ECB as the distressed banks of Europe seem to want to place excess reserves with the Draghi Bank rather than buy the sovereign debt of Italy, Spain and the others.

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