The experts are out with more ridiculous forecasts about the Trump victory and what it means for the various aspects of the financial markets. But let me toot my own horn for a moment: The trading outcomes for a Trump victory were on target, except for the dollar rally sustaining itself, but that is something I will be analyzing as we go forward. It amazes me how the media rushes back to the same forecasters who have so badly predicted many of the major political outcomes of the last two years. An important book for my readers is Tetlock’s “Superforecasting,” which makes a very powerful argument about following the experts.
Posts Tagged ‘Sheila Bair’
Notes From Underground: The Answer Is, “We’ll See”
November 10, 2016Notes From Underground: One More Issue Resolved … Chancellor Merkel Prevails
September 23, 2013The German election results were pretty much as polls predicted, although the CDU/CSU party of Angela Merkel ran stronger than polls suggested and the FDP, Merkel’s present coalition partner ran similar to last week’s Bavarian State votes, and is forced out of government as it failed to reach the necessary 5% threshold. The FDP failed to receive as many votes as the UPSTART Alternative for Germany (AfD), which just missed the 5% criterion and thus will have no votes in the Parliament. Chancellor Merkel has not yet formed a governing coalition as she still needs five votes to secure a parliamentary majority. The EURO performed in a very stable fashion as the news reflected the status quo. The market is still busy digesting the news from the FED‘s non-tapering announcement, which has put more turmoil than stability into the financial markets. The U.S. equity markets, using the S&Ps as my measure, closed below the low made on September 17 before the FOMC surprise statement. (NOTE: I am using a continuation chart for this picture). The FED‘s “Wednesday Surprise” has left the market wondering what the FED sees that kept it from beginning a tapering of its LARGE SCALE ASSET PURCHASES, or QE by another name. It may well be that the FED doesn’t see any problems but just being cautious in response to recent weaker data.