Posts Tagged ‘global macro’

Notes From Underground: An Efficient Way to Access Notes From Underground

May 30, 2018
On Tuesday I had the pleasure of chatting with Adam Johnson, a former trader and Bloomberg TV anchor, who is currently the founder and author of the Bullseye Brief. We covered a great deal of the world and Adam, in the manner of Anthony Crudele and Richard Bonugli, was a great interlocutor as all previous investment professionals tend to be.
The podcasts provide an ability to cover issues in a very in-depth manner. Remember though, I don’t TOUT but merely offers a focus on the issues that are pertinent to traders and investors. As I always caution, do your own work to establish risk parameters you are comfortable with in order to achieve the greatest returns for the least amount of risk. I will expound upon some of the themes of from the podcast in the coming days and weeks. But something you OUGHT to be cognizant of: A theme I am developing is to measure the most significant or dangerous persons to the global or domestic investment environments. The top of my list is Vladimir Putin, Mario Draghi and Recep Erdogan. More to follow but pour that needed libation and enjoy the BLOG from BULLSEYE.

Notes From Underground: Who Gets Eaten and Who Get’s to Eat (Sweeney Todd)

October 15, 2017

As Stephen Sondheim wrote in the dark musical Sweeney Todd, “What’s the sound in the world out there. It’s man devouring man. The history of the world, my sweet, is who gets eaten and who gets to eat.”

I open with this thought in regards to a wonderful op-ed piece in the Barron’s over the weekend by John Curran titled, “The Coming Renaissance of Macro Investing.” Curran has the pedigree of writing this piece as he served his time at one of the greatest global macro funds, Caxton Partners. There are no greater thinker/traders than Stan Druckenmiller or Bruce Kovner. When it came to understanding the role of foreign currencies in creating investment opportunities Kovner is the wisest I have ever had the pressure to read. The last 10 years have been difficult for the global macro discretionary crowd but as John Curran suggests the winds of change are blowing. This is also a theme I have been discussing of late. The big difference in my opinion is that short-term trades will morph into momentum investments.

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Notes From Underground: Bernanke, Summers and Fischer, OH MY

January 6, 2016

Everybody is talking at me and I can’t hear a word they’re saying, only the echoes of mismanaged policy. The academics are out and about, making the case as to why they are right and markets are WRONG, although Professor Summers gives much more credibility to the wisdom of markets than Bernanke or Fischer. The reason that this is important for traders and investors is that in the past six years, risk pricing has been based on the positive outcome of Fed policy.

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Notes From Underground: It Would’ve Been Enough

April 14, 2014

In an effort to state how badly the markets are ignoring risk, we at Notes From Underground warned about being short volatility. As we head into the Passover and Easter holidays there is much on the table that financials fail to appreciate. A global market focused on the pantheon of central bankers it is the my task to remind of the major issues facing the world’s POLITICAL ECONOMY.

  1. The BOJ and the Abe government have gone to great lengths to create a recovery in Japan and with it a modicum of inflation. At this point economic growth in Japan is stalling. With the initiation of the sales tax increase of 3 percent April 1, Japan’s central bank has a great deal at stake. If growth stalls the BOJ will be hard-pressed for even more radical efforts to jump-start the economy through increased bond purchases both of a domestic and foreign nature. The YEN will be under pressure causing stress throughout the global financial system.
  2. What will happen in China as it tries to stem any debt crisis from too much credit being advanced through  the Chinese shadow banking system?
  3. The problems in the Eurasian land mass as President Putin attempts to undermine the sanction regime of the G7 nations
  4. The potential for  a banking crisis in the European system as the mass of debt becomes a larger burden in a low inflation environment. Compounding the problem is that European banks own a vast amount of sovereign debt of Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Spain,resulting in an adverse feedback loop of monstrous proportions; and
  5. The Federal Reserve has adopted a position of primary concern for a high unemployment/low wage environment and is pretending that a zero interest rate policy can provide the solution. The FED is putting its credibility on the line in pursuing a jobs-at-all-cost position for if the self-imposed jobs threshold can be easily forsaken, why should investors believe that the inflation threshold will be followed? Keep an eye on the 2/10 yield curve for any signs of the market’s concern with regards to the credibility of the Yellen Fed. For now, the SPOOS and NASDAQ are the default mechanism for all investors for when in doubt, buy equities. As Jefferies’ David Zeros said on CNBC Monday afternoon, SPOOS ARE FOR LOVERS AND GOLD IS FOR HATERS, which may well be … for now. But being short volatility is for the clinically insane. Just hope I have a ticket on the volatility train since “YOU DON’T NEED NO BAGGAGE, JUST GET ON BOARD.”

Also in the spirit of the holidays:

If the U.S. Treasury had done only TARP … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only provided QE1 … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only done QE2 … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only done Operation Twist … it would’ve been enough
If the Fed had only done QE Infinity … it would’ve been enough
If Mario Draghi had pledged no taboos … it would’ve been enough
If Mario Draghi had pledged to do whatever it takes … it would’ve been enough
If the BOJ had only doubled the money supply … it would’ve been enough
If the BOJ had only bought massive amounts of JGBs … it would’ve been enough
If the Japanese were only buying foreign bonds … it would’ve  been enough
If  all the world’s central banks had lowered interest rates to zero … it would’ve been enough

AND NOW FOR THE BITTER HERBS!

Wishing all of our readers a happy and healthy Passover and Easter.

Notes From Underground: Getting To The Core Issue In Apple’s Dividend

March 19, 2012

Today, in an interview with Betty Liu on Bloomberg TV, I was asked about the “news” of the day, of course that being the APPLE decision to pay a dividend and buy back stock. Long-time readers of NOTES are aware that I am a believer in stock dividends as a way to return capital to the genuine owners of a corporation: THE SHAREHOLDERS. Ms. LIU wanted to know if the APPLE news was bullish for the EQUITY markets as the share price of the technological behemoth would drive all indices higher. As a GLOBAL MACRO analyst/trader/investor, I said that it was more bullish for capitalism in America.

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