Posts Tagged ‘ARMS’

Notes From Underground: Is It Possible To Win BEN STEIN’S Money? (BEN Bernanke + Jeremy STEIN)

July 7, 2013

The unemployment data from the U.S. and Canada were very much on target. After last month’s robust employment data, there was a small decrease in Canadian jobs and nothing outstanding in terms of manufacturing hiring so nothing to see north of the border. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls were slightly higher than expected but the average hourly earnings, which were more powerful, rose 0.4% (or 10 cents an hour). Increased wages are needed to sustain consumer demand so this was a positive factor in the data. Also, the April and May NFPs were both revised higher, making the markets believe that a September tapering of asset purchases is on the schedule. The U.S. BOND MARKETS were sold aggressively, sending yields on the long-end of the curve soaring.


Notes From Underground: FOMC MINUTES … Is This a Balance Sheet Recession?

August 30, 2011

The¬†August 9 FOMC¬†minutes from were released today and there was a great deal of discussion about the issue of leaving rates at the present level for the next two years. It seems that one of the dissenters opposed the measure for he didn’t want the FED to be locked in to a decision and thought the measure should be subject to newly released data. There was much discussion about European banks and the efforts by the ECB to calm the storm and prevent a bank run. The FED did acknowledge that the biggest drag on U.S. growth was the “efforts to rebuild balance sheets and caution on the part of households facing an uncertain economic environment.”


Notes From Underground: Housing is Still Looking for a Foundation of Support

May 31, 2011

The Case-Shiller index today reported a further erosion in home values, which put more pressure on the U.S. economy. In addition to a drop in the major asset of most U.S. households, the CHICAGO PMI came in much weaker than expected as consumer confidence showed renewed weakness. Even with record low interest rates, the U.S. housing market cannot find any support for prices. As I have argued for years, if employment stays weak then housing will struggle … and so it goes.