Moody’s, the major seers of economic events, has done it again. The Greek sovereign debt rating was lowered and rates on 2-year Greek notes increased to more than 15 percent. Rates on Greek 10-year debt rose to more than 12 percent, yet this is not an inverted curve that one would wish to buy. The group at Moody’s is awakening to the coming dreadful effects of the “NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP.” The more the economy is squeezed, the less tax revenue is collected and that results in a further deterioration of the GREEK BUDGET. The Greek government is going to have to go back to the EU/IMF bailout gurus and ask for further assistance in preventing the next round of financing from causing a greater drain on Greek Government coffers. Imagine the deleterious effects of the Greek polity having to refinance its DEBT at current market rates rather than the considerable lower rates offered through the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).
Posts Tagged ‘Medvedev’
Notes From Underground: MOODY’S Downgrades Greece again, and yet the DOLLAR fails to gain strength
March 7, 2011Notes From Underground: Short Look at Being Long Russia
November 10, 2010Allow me, readers, to journey down the rabbit hole. I believe a major theme in 2011 is that many of the high correlative trades are going to break apart and fundamentals will prevail over mere mathematical permutations (hence NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND WHERE 2+2=5 is also a beautiful thing). One of the areas of decoupling will be in the area of DEVELOPING MARKETS where all nations are not equal. Russia is one of those nations that I believe will outperform, as the rising middle class will continue to push for more development that is not just natural-resource based. Now I am not naïve and certainly understand the pernicious nature of Putin and his kleptogarchs and the failure of the rule of law. One of Yra’s laws is the MONEY IS FASCIST, by which I mean that money in search of a high return will tolerate autocratic rule. History certainly bears this out, especially when we are in a greed cycle rather than fear.