Posts Tagged ‘Potash’
May 18, 2016
*NOTE: Uncle Charlie is baseball slang for curve ball
Today, the markets validated the recent moves in the YIELD CURVES as the April FOMC minutes reflected a desire by MOST participants to raise in interest rates at the JUNE meeting (kudos to Mr. Art Cashin for presciently discussing the importance of “MOST” prior to the FOMC release, or if you prefer LEAKS). It appears that the “data dependent” FED is certainly prepared to raise the FED FUNDS rate (in addition to the lower-bound reverse repo rate, and upper-bound interest on excess reserves rate) as long as the data is robust enough to signal full employment and is having the desired effect on wage and overall price inflation. The minutes certainly reflect the hawkishness of Rosengren, Mester and Lacker but it begs the question: DOES MONEY TALK AND BULLSHIT WALK? For as hawkish as the April minutes have been defined by the previous five days of price action, HOW COULD THE VOTE HAVE BEEN 9-1 in favor of keeping rates unchanged?
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Tags:5/30 curve, Fed, Fed Funds, FOMC, Janet Yellen, Potash, Stanley Fischer, U.S. Dollar, William Dudley, yield curve
Posted in Fed | 13 Comments »
September 29, 2013
As the end of September approaches it seems that the global financial markets are again buffeted by the egomaniacs who crowd the corridors of power. This weekend has brought news that Silvio Berlusconi (Captain Viagara) has forced his party’s minister to resign from the coalition government, headed by Enrico Letta. Mr. Berlusconi was angry about losing another court appeal and in reprisal has decided to bring down the government. This will of course unnerve the Italian debt markets and send the Italian bond yields higher. Berlusconi will hope that he can craft a compromise with the government and receive some clemency and relieve him of his continued legal problems. The ability to hold the Italian financial markets hostage to instability is an expensive way to play for a legal reprieve. The U.S. markets are being subjected to a similar sort of hostage taking as the Republicans in the House are looking to negotiate away Obamacare by holding the U.S. debt levels and credit ratings hostage to political machinations. Being sympathetic to the long-term designs of the Republicans I understand there concerns but question their methods. Each time the House Republicans go down this path they ultimately cave and suffer politically at the ballot box. Better to draw up a genuine budget plan and educate the public to the destructive future budgetary problems.
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Tags:Abe, Berlusconi, CIC, ECB, Germany, Italy, Potash, Yen
Posted in Europe, Germany, Italy | 7 Comments »
July 26, 2011
The seriousness of the U.S. DEBT CIRCUS cannot be overstated but evidently not from a market perspective. U.S. Treasuries have continued to be well bid as many investors still run to the TREASURY market in times of uncertainty. Besides the “rush” to safety in the BONDS, the FED has so badly perverted the market’s pricing mechanism that it is very difficult to determine the genuine impact of the Washington default countdown. European sovereign debt has been trashed during the last 20 months as there was no real central bank support to the market as the EFSF was a late comer to the scene and was provided with meager provisions.
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Tags:Belaruskali, BHP, bonds, Canadians, dollars, EFSF, Fed, Fed bondage, Gold, grain futures, IEA, Japan, Jeremy Grantham, NFG, oil markets, pension funds, Potash, Silvinit, Swiss Franc, Treasury, U.S. debt circus, Uralkali, Yen
Posted in Commodities, Currency, Gold, Oil | 15 Comments »
December 20, 2010
A note from Andrew Bosomworth, head of Pimco’s European Portfolio, suggests that Greece, Ireland and Portugal would be better off leaving the euro currency until they get their houses in order. Bosomworth wrote it will be difficult but it can be done and the currency devaluations that will be part of exit will aid the PIG in its attempt at economic recovery.
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Tags:Andrew Bosomworth, BHP, BRIC, Canada, EU, Euro, Fed, Justice Department, Novartis, PepsiCo, PIIGS, PIMCO, Potash, RBA, Russia, SEC, Silvinit, SOMA, Uralkali
Posted in Australia, Currency, Europe, Federal Reserve, Russia, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
August 22, 2010
The biggest news from the weekend is that the Aussie elections resulted in a hung parliament–the first in 70 years–as neither the Liberals nor Labor Party received the necessary 76 seats in the Lower House that would’ve given them the majority that was needed. The Liberals (Conservatives) are in front with 72 confirmed seats to the Labor’s 71, but both must seek a coalition. The GREEN PARTY controls one seat in the Lower House, making them a potential factor in any coalition, but if the Liberals can coax four independents they will be able to form a government.
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Tags:Aussie Dollar, BHP, Canada, China, Green Party, hung parliament, Potash
Posted in Australia | 1 Comment »
August 19, 2010
The news on the economic front is tepid at best, which has given rise to the long end of the treasury market. As the BOND and NOTE futures continue to rally, the airwaves are full of talk about a bubble in the fixed income market. We don’t think a BUBBLE is forming, but what is happening is that many HEDGE funds overstayed their welcome on the 2/10 steepener. The steepener trade was a great trade as the FED pushed rates down on the front end to help aid the Banks in their profitability in a very uncertain credit market. (This was the same policy that the FED used back in the early nineties when the FED eased the pain of the banks, and Savings & Loan crisis. It created a very steep curve.) The FED did it again beginning in 2007 as the current DEBT crisis unfolded and the BOND VIGILANTES pushed the 2/10 curve out to more than 280 basis points, which provided banks with an easy profit center to help shore up its balance sheets. Of course bank profits came out of the pockets of anyone who had savings in short-term money instruments.
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Tags:Aussie, BHP, bond vigilantes, bubble, Debt, deflation, Fed, FOMC, Green Party, hedge funds, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Potash, Treasury bonds, Treasury notes
Posted in Australia, deflation, Federal Reserve | 12 Comments »