Archive for the ‘China’ Category

Notes From Underground: When a Slower Fool, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life

June 30, 2019

First things first: There were no surprises out of the G-20, at least for those who read Notes From Underground and listened to the discussion that took place in the Whitewave Trading room. The most significant outcome was that President Trump held off from installing additional tariffs while President Xi confirmed that China would be buying more U.S. production, especially in the agricultural sector. In Thursday’s podcast with the Whitewave participants I advised that with the current weather problems in the U.S. heartland the Chinese would have to be vigilant about the cost of global grain prices rising as supply was hampered by poor planting conditions.

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Notes From Underground: Making Sense Of the Jabberwocky

May 7, 2019

Fans of Lewis Carroll should know the whimsical poem from Alice in Wonderland that comes across as complete NONSENSE. The collection of tweets from the White House is the modern day version of the Jabberwocky. On Friday Trump tweeted about how well the talks were going with Chinese and that they were close to completion with a positive outcome. So between that and a strong jobs number, the U.S. equity markets had much to celebrate

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Notes From Underground: Did Xi Just Provide a Clue to China’s Yellow Brick Road?

April 28, 2019

In the past week, we have heard from the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan. There were no surprises as both institutions noted softness in the global economy. The BOC, as reported by Bloomberg, “fully abandoned its bias toward raising interest rates at the economy grapples with a slowdown.” The BOC overnight rate remains at 1.75 percent, which is deemed appropriate by the Governing Council until the global economy removes some of the uncertainties it is struggling to overcome.

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Notes From Underground: Lighthizer, Always At the Ramparts Of Trade Battles

April 8, 2019

As the second quarter begins, the financial markets seem fixated on China/U.S. trade frictions, or lack thereof. This narrative is old and stale. For those new to the realm of international relations, be aware that China will slow-walk these negotiations. There will be many attempts to “agree to disagree.” For example, in Monday morning’s SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, there was an article titled, “China Refuses to Give Up ‘Developing Country’ Status At WTO Despite US Demands,” about China’s “privileged position” at the World Trade Organization. In the simplest terms, the WTO allows for countries to self-define as developing country status. This brings certain rights that allow for longer transition periods before they have to be in full compliance with WTO rules and regulations. This is described as “Special and Differential Treatment.”

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Notes From Underground: Let’s Not Mince Words, Pepper Spray Davos

January 20, 2019

Let me begin by reiterating that this is NOT a political blog but a place for the exchange of ideas dedicated to those who desire to improve trading and investing in order to increase profits. My STRENGTH is bringing an in-depth knowledge of political economy and 40-plus years of trading my own funds (while also managing other people’s money via hedge funds).

My personal political views OUGHT not to be relevant for when it comes to generating ideas. I adhere to the wisdom of Deng Xiaoping: “I don’t care if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice.” While I might criticize certain persons in any political administration it is merely to criticize actions as a way of comprehending policy outcomes. (For example, my disdain for Steven Mnuchin is solely based on what I deem to be his incompetence, a similar contempt that I held for Tim Geithner.)

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Notes From Underground: Larry Kudlow, White House Eunuch

September 17, 2018

Make no mistake, Larry Kudlow is worthless as a source of financial wisdom because he wishes to be everybody’s friend. That prevents him from having a discussion about serious financial concerns. The Kudlow mantra is: Pay attention to the growth coming from the tax and regulatory reforms put in place by the Trump administration. I agree with the great need for regulatory reform, but the Kudlow mantra of “don’t worry about budget deficits because growth will take care of it” is RUBBISH. The Trump administration has increased spending while cutting taxes, which in my opinion has merely resulted in INTERTEMPORAL MISALLOCATION. The TRUMP White House has merely brought forth demand from the near future with no genuine way to pay for it. This is of course right out of the Nixon play book in which “we are all Keynesians now.”

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Notes From Underground: Sympathy For the Devils

September 3, 2018

The world is aflame with the BLOWBACK from policies of the elites who carved a world fit to desired outcomes of a self-established ruling class. The free flow of capital in pursuit of cheap labor has led to the stagnant wages that have given rise to anti-establishment forces, which have upset the Davos crowd’s playbook. As long as capital pursues a maximization of return but is answerable to the Westphalian construct of the nation-state, there will continue to be bouts of conflict that result in less desirable outcomes for global corporations.

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Notes From Underground: Depending On the Outcome of Rational Actors?

August 19, 2018

So much of social science is dependent on various actors making rational decisions. Economics has regularly proven that “actors” certainly fail to act rationally as manias, crashes and panics in repeated form are proof (see Charles Kindleberger). In the realm of politics, the dependence on nation-states to behave rationally has led to many major policy errors. During the Cold War the balance of nuclear weapons prompted both super powers to remain reticent to embark on direct confrontations and avoid an unthinkable shooting war. The fear of world destruction also meant that the USSR and UNITED STATES would leash their “allies” to prevent any direct conflict between the two major hegemonists.

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Notes From Underground: The Summer Doldrums

July 10, 2018

There are storms brewing but for the moment markets are stuck in the Doldrums waiting for the winds to increase in velocity. The issues confronting the market are all too familiar as NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has been categorizing for the previous months.

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Notes From Underground: No Chinese Devaluation or Massive Liquidation of U.S. Treasuries

April 9, 2018

There are many questions swirling around what possible responses President XI can bring forward to counteract the heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration on imposing tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the U.S. Many news agencies have carried stories about the Chinese responding to Trump tariffs by entering into a policy of depreciating the Chinese yuan, which is currently trading at 6.3075 against the DOLLAR.

This is an interesting view but it would force China to act against the G-20 accord of not manipulating one’s currency. The XI-led government is looking for international support in its effort to combat a trade war so alienating the international economic community would be detrimental to the Chinese interest of global support. The narrative some analysts are spinning is to recall China’s 2 percent devaluation of its currency in August 2015, which sent global currency and markets into a frenzy, especially as stocks were reeling from deflationary fears.

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