Archive for the ‘UK’ Category

Notes From Underground: The BOJ Leading Off With the Fed On Deck

July 29, 2019

On Monday night, the Bank of japan announces its policy intentions and consensus is for no change. The ECB remained on hold with promises of more liquidity to come so it is doubtful that Governor Kuroda would do anything ahead of the FED.

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Notes From Underground: It’s a Drag For Draghi Getting Old

July 24, 2019

On Thursday morning we will hear from the ECB about its desires to raise inflation to its self-imposed 2% target. But on Wednesday we received more tepid economic data from the EU. Then couple that with the ascent of Boris Johnson to the position of British Prime Minister. The rise of Boris Johnson is a problem for Draghi as the possibility of a HARD BREXIT increases dramatically. The market and its DAVOS media sycophants have sold the narrative of a hard Brexit as being devastating for the U.K. economy, the British GILTS, the British pound and the Footsie 100. President Draghi has to be careful that a severe rally in the EUR/GBP cross doesn’t damage the European exporters, especially Germany, who runs a 50 billion-plus surplus with Britain.

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Notes From Underground: A Hard Brexit Is Going To Fall?

February 10, 2019

The economic fallout from a “hard” Brexit has been debated in the media for the last few months. When I say “hard Brexit,” I mean that the U.K. leaves the European Union without any deal about trade rules, movement of people or any other binding treaty rules concerning the contemporary EU/U.K. relationship. I have refrained from forecasting outcomes because they are beyond the scope of economic analysis since it requires using models built of questionable assumptions. The British have a long history of economic intercourse intertwined with the lines of commerce from its empire.

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Notes From Underground: Narrow-Minded Hypocrites, All I Want Is the Truth

December 13, 2018

Gimme some truth. That is what John Lennon craved back in 1971. In 2018, it seems that investors and traders crave the same thing:

       I’m sick and tired of hearing things
       From uptight, short-sighted,narrow-minded hypocrits
       All I want is the truth, just Give me some truth
       I’ve had enough of reading things
       By neurotic, psychotic, pig-headed politicians
       No short-haired, yellow-bellied, son of tricky dicky
       Is going to mother hubbard soft soap me
       With a pocketful of hope
       Money for dope, money for rope

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Notes From Underground: Deep Discourse With Anthony Crudele (and Futures Radio)

December 10, 2018

On December 6, I had the pleasure of talking with Anthony Crudele at Futures Radio. Anthony and I covered Russia, yield curves, gold/currencies and the Chinese tariff situation. Enjoy the discussion, be it on the tread mill, stationary bike or sipping your favorite libation. My favorite drink is now Wild Irish Rose sent to me by the great trader and humorist P. Lynch. And please, keep the comments coming as powerful questions lead to quality discourse and potential profitable trades.

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Notes From Underground: Tell Me Why You Are Crying

October 23, 2018

The current market temperament is causing angst among investors. A relatively strong earnings season is failing to provide support to the U.S. equity markets that many analysts have been promoting. The media is wondering what will halt the continuing slide in stocks around the globe. We at Notes From Underground have pondered what the primary catalyst would be

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Notes From Underground: Is the Yield Curve Taunting the Fed?

June 6, 2017

There were many responses to last night’s post regarding one of my favorite topics: the yield curve. The airwaves have been filled with opinions about the impact of the 2/10 curve on bank stocks and other financial asset valuations. Long-time readers know that I often note the significance of the shape of the curve for hinting at possible investment opportunities. Last year the 2/10 curve FLATTENED (a relative term) to long-term support levels at 74.8 basis points and then steepened out to about 150 basis points as the market feared a Trump inflation scenario.

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Notes From Underground: The Rallying Cry Remains, “Pepper Spray Davos”

January 16, 2017

We at Notes From Underground have published more than 1,000 posts during the last seven years. I have voiced my displeasure about the annual gathering in Davos for the past five years (last year’s Davos post is below). My battle cry was (ans continues to be): PEPPER SPRAY DAVOS, a response to the heinous police overreaction to the pepper spraying of University of California–Davis students in November 2011. The police POURED pepper spray onto student protesters, a contemptible act of police brutality. I thought if the UC–Davis students were subjected to such a police response for blocking a sidewalk the crony capitalists of global monopolies are surely worthy of such a contemptuous action. The corporate chieftains and their political sycophants, who exchange “insider views” for large speaking fees (and of course a hope to secure a job after leaving political office), have badly damaged the world.

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Notes From Underground: Janet Yellen’s Speech Scared The Halloween Out of Me

October 18, 2016

On Friday, Chair Yellen delivered a speech at the Boston Federal Reserve Conference, “At The Elusive Great Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics.” Her speech was titled, “Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis.” My short response to the questions posed by Janet Yellen have been answered by many NON-FED economists and most prominently by Richard Koo in his great work on BALANCE SHEET RECESSIONS. My sense is that the FED is an insular organization and pays little note of those outside its Ivory tower. Yellen’s second question was: “Whether individual differences within broad groups of actors in the economy can influence aggregate economic outcomes–in particular, what effect does heterogeneity  have on aggregate demand?” Now, GET REALLY SCARED:

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Notes From Underground: Clearing Up Some Odds and Ends

August 1, 2016

This week brings Prime Minister Abe’s fiscal plan, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, the Bank of England’s monetary results and U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Friday. So let’s put some perspective to tonight’s main events. The RBA will announce its overnight interest rate and consensus is calling for a 25 basis point CUT to 1.5%. Analysts believe that the weakness in the natural resource sector is aiding the reduction in capital expenditure. Also, Aussie inflation is at the bottom of the RBA‘s target range, which provides rationale for the RBA. I am not so sure of a CUT for this is coming at the end of Governor Stevens’s term at the RBA. Dr. Phillip Lowe will take over September 16 so this is the penultimate meeting for Mr. Stevens.

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