It is startling to think that the S&P downgrades could have any sort of effect on the markets. The sovereign debt markets have been telling those who are attentive that not all countries in the European Union are equal. Several of the GIIPS have had interest rate yields far above those of the German benchmark for almost two years. Even the French 10-year note has widened to 150 BASIS POINTS over the German 10-year BUND during the last six months. DO WE REALLY NEED S&P OR OTHER RATING AGENCIES TO CERTIFY WHAT THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN SAYING?
Posts Tagged ‘Brazil’
Notes From Underground: S&P, The Insider’s Trading Edge
January 16, 2012Notes From Underground: Awaiting the FOMC
September 20, 2011The media has made the idea of a TWIST by the FED a sure thing. Okay, can’t argue with consensus, but of course that is why this blog exists: To question the thought process of the purveyors of conventional wisdom and to try to profit in a real-time world from challenging the status quo. If the FED TWISTS will the markets turn? BUT TURN TO WHAT? What will a lowering of the rate on the 10-year note do to a stalling economy with zero interest rates? Bernanke himself alluded to the BALANCE SHEET REPAIR taking place in the private sector, which was holding back consumer demand. Even though corporate balance sheets are healthy, capital investment lags as the corporations fear lackluster demand so there is no rush to create new supply.
Notes From Underground: Strategic and Economic Dialogue … Enough SED
May 10, 2011Chinese and U.S. officials have been meeting in Washington for the past two days under the aegis of the annual forum of Strategic and Economic Dialogue (SED). All the news releases from these meetings sound so hopeful about increased cooperation between the world powers. The Chinese feed the U.S. policy makers with words of promise about the SINO economy becoming more market-oriented and the American delegation tells the Chinese that they will be fiscally responsible and do all they gain to maintain the value of U.S. paper assets that fill the vaults in Beijing. An hour after the Chinese head home, the financial media will no doubt be hungry for some more morsels of hope. So it goes and it will continue: Both sides pledging fidelity the vibrancy of the global economic order.
Notes From Underground: Last Week Was The Year That Was
March 20, 2011This weekend brought mixed news about the lessening of RISK in Japan, and possibly Bahrain, while increasing the sense of risk in Libya and other parts of the Middle East. It appears that the threat of nuclear catastrophe has been diminished as some power has been restored to the nuclear plants under stress and the needed cooling is proceeding. The Japanese equity market will be a good source to monitor investor sentiment as weekend news publications were filled with articles about the values abound in the Nikkei and other Japan-based indexes. The YEN will be a much more difficult barometer because of the impact of YEAR END and its ability to cause disruptive volatility in currency markets.
Notes From Underground: MOODY’S Downgrades Greece again, and yet the DOLLAR fails to gain strength
March 7, 2011Moody’s, the major seers of economic events, has done it again. The Greek sovereign debt rating was lowered and rates on 2-year Greek notes increased to more than 15 percent. Rates on Greek 10-year debt rose to more than 12 percent, yet this is not an inverted curve that one would wish to buy. The group at Moody’s is awakening to the coming dreadful effects of the “NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP.” The more the economy is squeezed, the less tax revenue is collected and that results in a further deterioration of the GREEK BUDGET. The Greek government is going to have to go back to the EU/IMF bailout gurus and ask for further assistance in preventing the next round of financing from causing a greater drain on Greek Government coffers. Imagine the deleterious effects of the Greek polity having to refinance its DEBT at current market rates rather than the considerable lower rates offered through the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).
Notes From Underground: The Irish Government loses power as the GREENS pull the plug
January 23, 2011The weekend brought some political news from the EU. Brian Cowen gave up his leadership of the Fianna Fail Party but vowed to stay on as prime minister. However, the GREEN PARTY, who is the junior partner in the coalition, balked at the uncertainty caused by PM Cowen and pulled their support, which would force the dissolution of Parliament after this week’s vote on important budgetary matters. It is not as significant as it could be for elections were scheduled for March and the ruling party has been expected to suffer a total defeat. The most important outcome is that some of the leadership challenging Cowen within Fianna Fail will lose some precious time to secure their support within the party.
Notes From Underground: The Swiss are yodeling about the strength of the FRANC; Brazil wants the capital markets to get REAL
January 10, 2011There were a few stories today about the SWISS complaining about the negative impact the FRANC‘s record strength is having on the economy. Both Bloomberg and the Financial Times ran articles citing Swiss policy makers and SNB officials raising the issue of currency strength and the possible need for intervention to halt the FRANC‘s rise. In an article by Haig Simonian in the FT, he details the high cost of SNB intervention on the CANTONS. Under Swiss law, the central bank disperses a share of its annual gains to the different CANTONS to help them meet their budgets. This year, SNB has a sizable loss of 21 billion FRANCS through November from foreign exchange and an overall loss of 8.5 billion FRANCS because of windfall gains from GOLD and other trading.
Notes From Underground: The markets will labor with the unemployment report
January 6, 2011Let me state out again as to why the FOREX markets are going to be a difficult investment in 2011. The emerging markets and commodity-based currencies have been the repositories of global capital seeking to take advantage of the Chinese and India growth phenomena without having to actually invest in the countries themselves. If you like China, buy the Australian equity or currency as it provides a proxy on Beijing’s growth policies: A classic case of providing picks and shovels rather than mining yourself.
Notes From Underground: In a tribute to the Chantays–PIPELINE
January 2, 2011No major stories this New Year’s weekend. Dilma Rousseff was sworn in as the new president of Brazil and spoke to the need to continue the policies of LULA. She said her influence will be on battling inflation but the markets will watch her cabinet’s actions as she has also voiced concern about the rapid appreciation of the REAL, as the Brazilian currency has appreciated 39 percent during the last two years. The strong REAL has begun to hamper the Brazilian equity markets as it was up a mere 1.25 percent in a year that global commodities were the star performer. Brazilian debt markets are anticipating rates to rise this year so our eyes will be on the Brazilian central bank and watching to see how aggressive it is in stemming inflationary pressures.