On July 2, 1997 the Thai baht entered crisis mode, kicking off what become known as 18 months of Asian Contagion. The so-called Asian Tigers experienced massive capital disruptions as the Chinese economic miracle undermined the capital expenditure projects that were creating the manufacturing capacity to lift the TIGERS out of poverty and into significance in the global supply chain. The emerging markets learned that as fast as capital flows in to support foreign direct investment it can hurriedly depart as it seeks alternative venues with a better competitive advantage .
Notes From Underground: A New Form of Asian Contagion
February 23, 2020Notes From Underground: And the Concerns Continue
February 18, 2020On Tuesday global equities were down a very modest amount. The U.S. DOLLAR continued it move higher as the growth story and positive nominal yields is enough to push global investors into the U.S., the center of complacency. Commodity prices started off weak but OIL, grains and even COPPER found some buyers.
Notes From Underground: Do You Hear What I Hear?
February 16, 2020First, the news on the coronavirus continues to be buffeted by media outlets’ urge to be the first to report. The need for speed creates a rash of questionable stories that later get retracted or certainly get less sensational when context is added. When trading around this, I urge caution as opportunity knocks for those traders who can remain patient. There seems to be scientific interest in the failure of the VIRUS to have impacted children. While it is in the early stages of a potential pandemic, according to my source on all things infectious diseases, it is an outcome to watch in an effort to measure the potential impact.
Notes From Underground:
February 11, 2020In the 1960 classic film The Time Machine a traveler visits a future civilization in which a group of people is enslaved as a source of food. The food source are zombie-like and kept in comfortable captivity in an effort to control their protein source. After violence is done a siren sounds. When the time traveler questions the meaning of the siren the answer is it is ALL CLEAR but we never know what is all clear. Well, it seems the Coronavirus has been given the all clear signal based on the value of equity markets.
Notes From Underground: Coronavirus Trumps Unemployment Data
February 9, 2020Friday’s unemployment report was firm on job creation but soft on average hourly earnings. The work week remained unchanged. Further north, the Canadian jobs report was very robust as jobs increased by 34,500 versus an expected 16,000. The real strength was that all the jobs growth was full-time with hours worked experiencing a healthy gain of 0.5%. The unemployment rate dropped from 5.6% to 5.5%. And yet the Canadian dollar could not sustain a rally for more than five minutes.
Notes From Underground: Ho Hum, Time For Another Unemployment Number
February 6, 2020It has been an interesting first month of trading as markets have gone from searching for inflation fueled by a rise in commodity prices and a weakening dollar, especially in regards to emerging market currencies. The commodity rally coupled with an upward thrust in emerging markets ran into the headwind of the spread of the Coronavirus from Wuhan, China to several other nations. The whiff of inflation was subsumed by the onset of fears of global deflation as investors continue to be concerned about China economic activity grinding to a halt as quarantines are the prescribed remedy for preventing a genuine pandemic.
Notes From Underground: Man Plans, God Laughs
February 2, 2020It has been three weeks since I have sat down to articulate my thoughts on the global macro financial system in an effort to profit from trade/investment potentials. A lot of the discourse with many readers the focus was on the situation in the Middle East.
Notes From Underground: Looking at 2020 With Imperfect Vision
January 9, 2020On Monday, I had a chat with Anthony Crudele about the global macro impact on markets in 2020. As I always warn (in an effort to mimic MAO), there are many potential prairie fires in the world that COULD be ignited by a single spark. The Middle East is a potential prairie fire — every year. We were reminded of this over the last week as multiple events in IRAQ/IRAN brought the world to the precipice of cataclysmic outcomes. For now, the situation seems to be contained as GOLD, sovereign bonds and other tools of wealth protection.
Notes From Underground: Whistling Past the Tombstones
December 29, 2019As we approach 2020, it seems as though the financial world is unconcerned about the dramatic increase in DEBT. Yes, the airwaves are alive with news of the extremely low level of mortgage delinquencies but fail to discuss the growing delinquency of 90-day auto loans and the $1.5 trillion pile of student loan debt, an albatross for college graduates over the 20 years. Corporate debt has increased by the magic of financial engineering in which share buybacks and dividend increases are greased with the benevolence of central banks caught in a trap of their design.
Notes From Underground: Euthanize the Rentiers
December 22, 2019As we head into the global macro uncertainty of 2020, equity markets continue to elevate due to central bank liquidity additions. One year ago, U.S. equities suffered large losses, which some attributed to the FED firing its DOUBLE SHOTGUN of interest rate increases with QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING (Druckenmiller/Boockvar).
